Over the years I have been asked many times to explain how to
identify the
best stocks or shares to buy, and more importantly when to sell - when
you move from practice trading on the stock market games,
I hope you will find the following system both simple to use, and
easy to follow. It is the one I use for my own trading and investing, and
so far it has never let me down. Although it is not perfect, it is very
simple, and provided you follow all the steps you will end up picking
good quality solid stocks, which should perform well.
Now whether you are trading for real, or simply learning and having fun with the stock market games, the system is equally valid so please try it out for stock picking in your fantasy game as it will work just as well.
Start by thinking about the world economy - it is a very small place nowadays, and the influence of one country on another can be dramatic. Read the business press for general views about the world economic outlook. Which countries are in recession or likely to be in the future, which are expanding, what are the raw materials and commodities that these countries will require in the future. In the last few years, oil and commodities have soared, along with mining stocks and related industries. When major economies expand the demand is for raw materials and heavy engineering, so those companies involved in extraction and refining will tend to do well. Support service companies will also tend to perform well. Those involved in secondary processes such as steel producers should also see their stock rise in value as demand increases. Oil is another vital resource which is always in demand. With prices at $100 per barrel the extracting, refining, and support companies will be generating exceptional profits. Look at Canada as the next major exporter of oil to the US. Any companies currently involved in the Albert sands extraction should produce excellent results in the next few years. Try to think longer term and laterally if possible. Green issues are becoming increasingly important so any companies involved in production or supply of alternative energy sources may do particularly well. Think about issues such as plastic, which is rapidly becoming regarded as one of the most anti-social forms of packaging available. Is investing in such stocks a good long term investment, particularly with many countries around the world likely to start major campaigns against the use of plastic bags - simplistic maybe, but this is the way I think when considering which stocks to buy.
From the world economy we move to the country economy, so as a US investor you would look at the US economy, and on the other side of the pond at the UK economy. Let's assume we are a US investor - would we look at the housing market or financial services as a area of investment? The answer at the moment is probably not, so where would we look? Well everyone always needs to eat, and when times get tough the luxuries go and the essentials take top priority. So any companies in the luxury/leisure markets such as restaurants, holidays, entertainment, luxury goods, we would need to consider very carefully. Utility companies could do well as investors often look for safe havens when the economic outlook is uncertain - heat and light are still a priority. Consider wholesalers and retailers in basics such as foods and foodstuffs, both manufacturers and food processors. With ageing populations and greater life expectancy, perhaps we should look at major drug companies, nursing homes, healthcare companies etc. Remember that the markets will always lead the economy as long term trends take time to filter through. If you use common sense judgement and your own 'radar' you will pick up what is happening just by talking to colleagues, friends, suppliers or customers. Read the quality press, listen to TV comment but try to avoid the 'experts' - if they knew anything of value they would be making their own money, not being paid to tell you what's happening!!
OK - let's go on to the next stage and remember you can use this strategy in choosing your stocks in the stock market games.
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